194. Navigating Complexity — an imperative for a Good Life!
“The world is not magic — and that’s the most magical thing about it.” ― Sean Carroll
In school, more so in junior classes, there is a linear relationship between efforts and the grades. The more one prepares for the exams, the better one tends to fare in the exams. But after the sheltered education phase, the relationship between effort and results becomes tenuous. Without efforts, there is hardly any chance for results but no amount of hard work guarantees a corresponding “great” outcome. After school/college, a few end up working in firms performing regular roles but end up very rich because of their stock options; few end up doing well in their career just by riding the career wave of their bosses; a few see meteoric rise in their careers as if they were born for such spectacular careers. While a whole lot end up with middling careers despite hard work. A few lucky breaks tend to make all the difference.
I know folks who live moderate lifestyles who do not smoke or drink, eat well balanced food, sleep well etc but have had sudden bad heart afflictions. A few survived after extensive surgical interventions but a few did not have any opportunity for any medical intervention — their end came suddenly and abruptly. I also know people who are not particularly disciplined and who indulge in “bad” habits (smoke/chew tobacco and/or drink often) but seem to be merrily living away long lives with no apparent health issues.
“After a century of research, virtually all quakes still come completely unannounced.” — Mark Buchanan in his book “Ubiquity”
I have been hearing and reading for a while that a big earthquake is expected to hit near the fault line under California — it was expected in 1980s (perhaps earlier too). Today, 40 years later, I do not hear much of that at all. However, in these four decades, world has seen a number of earthquakes elsewhere — some of them very big (like the Japan earthquake in early 2010s) and some of them completely unexpected (like the one in Maharashtra/Gujarat, India in the 1990s). It is clear that earthquakes do tend to occur around the edges of tectonic plates but at an unpredictable timing and severity.
Big city folks who commute to work know very well that if they start their commute by just five to ten minutes later than their usual time, their commute time tends to balloon up disproportionately. Also, irrespective of their start time, one tends to hit upon particularly long traffic jams every once in a while; this is sure to happen with some kind of regular frequency but with unpredictable timing.
The above scenarios, as diverse as they are, have one thing in common — they operate in what are called complex adaptive systems where outputs tend to be disproportional to inputs and windfall outcomes may be sporadic but not uncommon.
“Reality is made up of circles but we see straight lines.” — Peter Senge
In fact, we operate in complex adaptive systems (CAS) most of the time. Careers, health, relationships, wealth, businesses, traffic, volcanos, forest fires, earthquakes etc — they all operate as CAS.
One way to understand CAS is by contrasting complex systems with ordered and chaotic systems. In ordered systems, in the face of any perturbations, things fall into a predictable rhythm quickly and then nothing interesting tends to happen. Role of the clerk in a bank, or perhaps most bureaucrats’ roles, are good examples of simple systems. Whereas in chaotic systems, the system constantly jumps from one state to another in such frenzy that history yields no learning and hence no efficient way to tame or navigate them. A torrent or a hurricane are good examples of chaotic systems. CAS sits between simple and chaotic systems, where things don’t fall into predictable tempo and at the same time, do not degenerate into random jumps either. This allows for intentional efforts to result in desirable outcomes but only probabilistically, as in, one can operate only with a likelihood of success — success can only be hoped and expected — it is never guaranteed.
Another way to look at CAS is by dwelling on the simple-complicated-complex classification. Simple systems are characterized by a small number of independent variables with relatively simple interactions among them. Operating a bicycle or making a cheese sandwich are examples of simple systems. Complicated systems typically involve a large number of independent variables with complicated interactions among at least few of them. Operating a rocket or preparing Hyderabadi Biryani are examples of complicated systems. Simple or complicated, the relationship between input variables and outcomes are (or can be) well defined. Most people can navigate simple systems rather easily whereas domain expertise may be required to navigate complicated systems. Complex systems, on the other hand, involve small to large number of inter-dependent variables which interact in typically simple but ever evolving ways. So, the number of variables and the nature of their interactions are not fixed in complex systems — both these quantities adapt and evolve. This dynamism of form and function differentiates complex from other systems.
“This web of life, the most complex system we know of in the universe, breaks no law of physics, yet is partially lawless, ceaselessly creative.” ― Stuart A. Kauffman
Some of the defining characteristics of CAS are emergent behavior (“whole” not derivable from the sum of “parts”), (typically) large number of inter-dependent, diverse and adaptive agents, context-sensitivity, self-regulation and organization, critical points/phases, regimes, etc. My goal here is not to formally delve into CAS but to relate its elements to real world situations. The larger objective is to elicit or provoke interest in understanding the machinations of CAS and thence navigate and thrive in such environments.
In addition to the functional characteristics mentioned above, there is another very important characteristic that is empirical in nature and that explains many powerful features of CAS: CAS follow “power law”. A power law distribution is a statistical distribution in which one variable is proportional to a power of the other (definition as taken from ScienceDirect.com). Understanding this feature can help us grasp the ubiquity of compounding effect in the world and, importantly, can help us in taking advantage of compounding effects in our own lives.
Bottomline
“Cleopatra’s nose, had it been shorter, the whole face of the world would have changed.” — Blaise Pascal
It is nearly impossible to force specific “superlative” outcomes in Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) but it is entirely possible to force “interesting” outcomes. These “interesting” outcomes could manifest as fantastical career and wealth sagas such as of Bill Gates, Warren Buffet, Satya Nadella, Sundar Pichai, Narendra Modi, Elon Musk etc. And they may also be much less storied but still superlative stories of the many first-generation wealthy people (perhaps few in your neighbourhood) or achievements of many local, national or international leaders who also came from ordinary backgrounds. Rather un-intuitively, in CAS i.e., in areas such as wealth, career, marriage, etc., great outcomes are achieved by attracting them rather than pursuing them. Developing a basic yet fundamental appreciation of CAS can help us with positioning ourselves for such attraction.
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