185. Predictable things are boring
“No one welcomes chaos, but why crave stability and predictability?” — Hugh Mackay
If you knew beforehand all the twists and turns of a “suspense” movie, would you still enjoy the movie? Likely not. There is something about ‘unpredictability’. We are enticed by unpredictability because it creates excitement and we like excitement.
But we prefer stable jobs with predictable income. We prefer jobs with predictable career growth paths. Entrepreneurs prefer predictable target market sizes and stable competitive landscape. Stock investors prefer companies with predictable growth. Otherwise brilliant but unreliable employees are traded out for less brilliant but more consistent ones.
Predictability is valued over uncertainty. In fact, in a way, all our life’s struggles are generally about increasing predictability and decreasing volatility. We do not like volatile stuff. We, most of us anyway, are in constant pursuit of creating comfort zones around ourselves. And predictability underpins these comfort zones.
“Of all the things a body loves, predictability is one of them.” — David Agus
Our world is dynamic. Nothing ever stands still. Even the body that we may think of as being constant from one moment to another, is also constantly changing — cells die and new cells regenerate all the time. In the backdrop of such dynamism, we surely and perhaps naturally seek predictability.
But what really can we predict with relative confidence? That achieving anything worthwhile takes hard work. That progress comes on the back of taking the right kind of risks. That although progress may manifest in spurts, it is caused by small, consistent steps taken over a long time.
As Jeff Bezos identified in his vision for Amazon, customers will always value good buying experience — wide selection options, competitive pricing, quick delivery etc. Amazon may have started by selling books online but Bezos was clear that they will not be able to predict what they will sell in the future. Their north star has always been customer value and experience — not any specific product or technology.
“As soon as things become predictable, they become boring.” — Hunter Parrish
Prices on the stock market eventually track business performance measured by metrics such as earnings growth, sales growth, profit margin and asset turns. These metrics reflect the health of the underlying business. And these metrics don’t really track any definite trend in the short term. Seen quarter to quarter, trend generally is unpredictable — in the least, inconsistent. Seen year to year, trend may still be somewhat inconsistent. But over many years, good businesses tend to trend upwards and bad businesses trend downwards. Stock prices on the other hand are fickler than water drops on a lotus leaf. They move up one moment and down the next moment and then again down or perhaps up. No discernible trend in the short term at all. Only in the long term do they tend to faithfully track underlying business performance. No wonder, many successful wealth creators in stock market prefer boring, predictable businesses over exciting, fad-chasing businesses.
“Predictability and great design are not friends.” — Fred Brooks
Careers of many great sportspersons like Sachin Tendulkar, Andre Agassi, Virat Kohli, Michael Johnson were not smooth in the short run too. Their careers had phases of plateaus and even sub-par performances but zooming out, the trend was essentially upwards. This is true not just for careers of sports persons — successful careers in all fields track this trend.
Ironically, while we may desire predictability, we crave for unpredictability. The best movies that you watched do not hold the same magic when you watch them again, particularly within short duration of the first viewing. Ditto with your favourite books. In fact, the essence of storytelling is to keep things suitably unpredictable. And who doesn’t like good stories. Or, said differently, who doesn’t like a good suspense.
Bottomline
“Although our intellect always longs for clarity and certainty, our nature often finds uncertainty fascinating.” — Karl Von Clausewitz
We enjoy unpredictability when the overall settings are controlled but in dynamic environments, we long for certainty.
So what?
It is better to seek out excitement when stakes are low. Getting our dose of thrill from movies or books is a lot better than seeking them in affairs that affect our health or vocations or wealth. Thrill of riding a roller coaster is far safer than the thrill of riding stock market swings. Monotony of walking 45 minutes daily is much better than the thrill of completing an untrained 10K run.
The big areas of our lives where we seek progress and success like careers, wealth and health, are subject to uncontrollable environments. They are not areas where you want to seek excitement; they are about living with residual uncertainty.
Always carefully choose areas of your lives where you seek excitement.
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